IQVIA, the world's leading integrated information technology and medical service provider (IQVIA), recently published a report called "2018and Beyond:Outlook and Turning Points", which will affect 10 predicted changes in global health care within 5 years and after 2018.
The report points out that global health care will face a series of key turning points, and the change in 2018 will be a key turning point for the global pharmaceutical industry to develop in the next 5 years. The types of drugs that are being developed, the contribution of medical technology to human health, and how the value of health care are calculated, are going to change significantly.
1, FDA will guide the adoption of RWE to support drug regulatory review.
In 2018, FDA will issue the first framework to release the real world evidence (RWE), which supports the potential of regulatory submission and drug safety monitoring. As the large data collected in the real world medical environment become more universal and powerful, it is being used more and more as evidence for the entire health care system. The trend of the combination of this RWE with existing clinical trial data is expected to lead to more collaborative approaches between the Life science companies and FDA around a number of areas, such as clinical trial design and post market monitoring.
2, niche biotherapy will go mainstream.
The number of next generation biotherapies that are on the market will continue to rise. From 2018 to 2022, 5-8 next generation biologic therapies, including cell therapy, gene therapy and regenerative medicine, are expected to be listed each year. These treatments will be compared to the 40-50 new active substances (NAS) that are expected to be released every year. To 20%.
On the other hand, these products will also subvert consumption patterns. In most cases, the cost of the next generation of biologic therapy will be close to or more than $100 thousand per patient. It is a great challenge for governments and insurance companies to find out which patients are eligible for treatment, to negotiate payment models based on treatment results, or to make the patients' maximum access to these new treatments without the ability to amortized costs over time.
3. Mobile medical APP will be added to the treatment guide
In 2018, guidelines for treatment from major clinical organizations will adopt and recommend the use of mobile medical APP. In fact, some clinical organizations have already done so. The trend to establish and support digital tools and interventions for the clinical application of hard evidence (hard evidence) will continue in the coming years; in 2018, about 340 digital medical efficacy studies will be completed and released, and the number of digital medical studies expected to be completed in 2022 will reach 3500.
4. The application of telemedicine will be further expanded
In 2018, almost every private insured patient in the US will get some form of telemedicine, though it will rarely be used. In 2017, the proportion of telemedicine visits was 2.6%, which will rise to 3.0-3.5% in 2018, and it will increase to 4.0%-7.5% in the next 5 years.
5, the cost of brand medicine will decline
In the past 5 years, net brand spending has increased from 326 billion US dollars to 395 billion US dollars in developed markets. In general, net growth is 69 billion dollars, of which 87% comes from the US market. In 2018, the net brand drug expenditure in developed markets is expected to fall by 1-3%, which will reduce the net expenditure on brand drugs by about $5 billion, and the report expects that the total net expenditure on brand drugs will be $391 billion in the year. In the next 5 years, although several new brand drugs are expected to be listed, the net expenditure of brand drugs in developed markets will remain unchanged from 2017.
6, specialized brand medicine will promote the growth of developed markets
In 2018, the specialty brand drug market will grow from 172 billion US dollars in 2013 to 318 billion US dollars, which will account for 41% of the developed market expenditure. In fact, specialist drugs will promote all growth of drug expenditure in 2018, but these growth will be offset by the decrease in traditional drug expenditure. In 2022, specialist brand drugs are expected to account for 48% of total expenditure in developed markets.
7. The growth of the whole emerging pharmaceutical market is slowing down
In 2018, the growth rate of the whole emerging pharmaceutical market slowed to 7-8% of the 9.7% annual growth rate of the previous 5 years, marking the third year economic growth rate of less than 10%. In the past 10 years, the proportion of new pharmaceutical market in global medical expenditure has increased from 13% in 2007 to 24% in 2017. Driven by changes in market capacity and widespread use of generic drugs, the market in these emerging countries is expected to increase by 6-9% to $3450-3750 billion by 2022.
In general, the process of promoting global health will continue, but the growth of drug availability in the last 10 years will not continue at the same rate because of the slowdown in economic growth in this group of key countries.
8. The net per capita consumption expenditure in the United States will remain stable
In 2018, the net drug consumption per capita in the United States will decrease, and it will remain almost unchanged until 2022, which is about 800 dollars per capita. The impact of a strong new drug pipeline, a moderate increase in the net price of 2-5% (7-10% on the basis of pricing) and the loss of brand drug franchise (the impact of the next 5 years will be greater than in the past 5 years) is taken into consideration, but the per capita expenditure will remain stable.